A leading indicator of future economic activity declined in June, with a recession signal triggered as well, The Conference Board said in a July 21 statement.
The think tank’s Leading Economic Index (LEI), which provides an early indication of where the economy is headed over the near term, fell by 0.3 percent last month from May.
For the first half of 2025, the LEI was down by 2.8 percent, which was a “substantially faster rate of decline” than the 1.3 percent decline in the second half of 2024, it said.
“For a second month in a row, the stock price rally was the main support of the LEI,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager of business cycle indicators at The Conference Board. “But this was not enough to offset still very low consumer expectations, weak new orders in manufacturing, and a third consecutive month of rising initial claims for unemployment insurance.”…