American consumers have absorbed roughly 22 percent of the costs from President Donald Trump’s tariffs through June, but that is expected to swell to 67 percent by year‑end if the pattern of past levies holds, Goldman Sachs economists said in a note this week.
Businesses have so far carried around 64 percent of the costs, and foreign exporters about 14 percent, according to the analysis led by Jan Hatzius.
By December, Goldman expects businesses’ share to fall below 10 percent and foreign exporters’ share to rise to 25 percent. The bank projects the shift will lift core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation—a key Federal Reserve gauge—to 3.2 percent in December versus 2.4 percent without tariff effects. In June, core PCE inflation came in at 2.8 percent….