The 16 Midterm Races That Could Determine Who Controls the Next Congress

The first 2026 midterm primaries are more than 200 days away, with Arkansas, North Carolina, and Texas kicking off inter-party preliminaries on March 3, 2026, but many congressional races are taking shape as incumbents and challengers launch campaigns.
Among the most closely-watched contests will be for supremacy in the House of Representatives, where Republicans now hold a 220-213 advantage.
Democrats believe they can flip the chamber while the GOP is gunning to increase its majority in the Nov. 3, 2026 election.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has identified 35 Republican-held congressional districts “in play,” while the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) has a “target list” of 26 “vulnerable” incumbent Democrats it believes GOP challengers can unseat….