The Canadian economy is likely to avoid a technical recession—defined by two quarters of negative GDP growth—in 2025, according to a report by Deloitte Canada.
“We expect the economy to limp along in the third quarter but now think that a technical recession can be avoided with growth rates running below-potential but still on the positive side of the ledger,” the Sept. 29 report said.
Deloitte Canada said while Canada’s economy “ground to halt” in the first half of the year because of U.S. tariff announcements that reduced consumer confidence and weighed on businesses, Canada is likely to benefit from continued tariff exemptions for goods compliant with the United States-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement (USMCA). The report said goods like steel, aluminum, copper, lumber, and automobiles will still face tariffs, but, “on balance,” up to 95 percent of Canadian exports to the United States face low or non-existent tariffs….