Democrats have spent much of the past year pointing to “overperformance” in deep-red districts as evidence that their message is breaking through in Donald Trump country.
The special election in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District is the latest test of that theory. Democrat Aftyn Behn lost to Republican Matt Van Epps this week in a district that backed President Donald Trump by more than 20 points in 2024, but she cut the margin to single digits after a flood of money, national attention, and “AOC of Tennessee” buzz on the left.
Party committees on both sides rushed to frame the result as a sign of things to come. Behind that spin is a quieter argument over what these kinds of races actually tell Democrats about their path in rural and conservative areas—and how much weight to put on “overperformance” in places they still cannot flip….