Alberta heavy crude will see a larger discount compared to the U.S. blend in 2026 than the previous year, according to CIBC analysts.
The bank said in a report that the difference between Western Canada Select (WCS), the heavy Alberta blend, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the U.S. light oil benchmark, will be at around US$14.25 a barrel in 2026. In 2025, the difference between the Canadian and U.S. blends was an average of US$11.30.
The report noted that while Alberta heavy crude had benefitted from the first full year of operations of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion to the West Coast, which enabled oil exports to Asia, the United States plans to rebuild Venezuela’s oil industry in 2026.
“In the near term, we expect news around resuming investment in Venezuela and targeting production restarts will dominate headlines and cause pressure on WCS-WTI basis (as well as heavy oil realizations for Western Canadian producers),” the CIBC analysts wrote….