Following an import-driven contraction to start 2025, the U.S. GDP growth rate is poised for a significant rebound in the second quarter.
A June 2 update to the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s widely watched GDPNow Model suggests the U.S. economy will expand 4.6 percent in the April–June period. This is up from the May 30 estimate of 3.8 percent.
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow Model is a running real-time estimate of quarterly growth, mirroring the methods used by the Bureau of Economic Analysis to forecast the GDP. Atlanta Fed economists rely on various data points, such as retail sales, factory output, and inflation measures….