Commentary
Here is a sobering number: Canada’s real GDP per capita fell 2.0 percent over the five years from 2020 to 2024—the worst such decline since the Great Depression. Meanwhile, the United States grew by roughly 4.5 percent over the same period. We didn’t fall behind because of a pandemic or a commodity shock. We fell behind because of choices.
Call it what it is: a productivity crisis. Not a slowdown, not a soft patch, not a transition. A crisis.
How Bad Is It?
In 2002, Canada’s GDP per capita was roughly 80 percent of the American figure. By 2024, that ratio had fallen to approximately 67 percent—a gap of more than $22,000 per person annually when adjusted for purchasing power. The OECD’s long-range outlook is even more sobering: Canada is projected to rank dead last among all 38 OECD member nations in real GDP per capita growth through 2060….