Ilham Aliyev, president of Azerbaijan — the host of the U.N.’s next climate talks — used a major address Friday to send Europe a pointed message: you need our gas.
The country’s fossil fuel reserves were “a gift of the gods,” Aliyev told a gathering of ministers in Berlin on Friday — and, he added, divine aid for Europe as it shifts off Russian energy supplies.
Azerbaijan’s hosting of the COP29 talks in November has drawn attention to its plans to massively expand natural gas extraction. An analysis from NGO Global Witness, seen by POLITICO, suggests the country’s plans would generate carbon dioxide emissions equal to Russia’s entire annual output.
Aliyev defended that expansion, calling it Azerbaijan’s “responsibility” to respond to Europe’s needs.
“We largely are investing in increasing our gas production because Europe needs more gas from new sources,” he said. “Our oil and gas will be needed for many more years, including European markets.”
Aliyev also outlined how his country was rolling out green energy to power its grid. That would mean, he said, “at least five additional billion cubic meters of gas will be exported to Europe. So it’s actually a win-win situation.”
Gas giant
The Global Witness analysis reveals that Azerbaijan’s plans to expand natural gas production by more than a third over the coming decade will generate around 1.92 billion tons of carbon dioxide — equivalent to Russia’s entire annual emissions. That would put the world 82 percent above its fuel-burning limit if it wants to keep global warming to 1.5 degrees Celcius.
COP29’s location in the fossil-fuel-dependent country comes after last year’s conference in the United Arab Emirates, another oil-rich nation. The U.K., which hosted the talks in 2021 has also since issued new licenses for drilling in the North Sea.
The pattern has discomforted activists who want to see fossil fuel defenders sidelined in ongoing climate talks. On the contrary, Aliyev was unabashed in using the Berlin climate meeting on Friday to make the case for continued development of resources.
“As a head of the country, which is rich with fossil fuels, of course, we will defend the right of these countries to continue investments and to continue production,” he said.
“Petrostates are perfecting a sinister COP playbook,” said Patrick Galey, a fossil fuel investigator with Global Witness. “Just like the UAE, Azerbaijan is planning a massive increase in gas production. Just like the UAE, Azerbaijan plans to legitimize its authoritarian regime by hosting these global talks. And just like the UAE, Azerbaijan appears set to use COP to develop its international business ties.”
Baku, which is among the most oil and gas-dependent economies of any country in the world, is expected to receive an additional $40 billion in foreign direct investment to increase its exports by 2034. In the past year alone, the South Caucasus country has struck deals with France’s TotalEnergies and the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company to increase exploration and drilling.
COP29’s location in the fossil-fuel-dependent country comes after last year’s conference in the United Arab Emirates, another oil-rich nation. | Maxim Shipenkov/EFE via EPA
In March, Aliyev warned that “anti-fossil fuel trends” should not stymie investment and called on European public banks to drop their bans on supporting fossil fuel infrastructure to help him expand the Southern Gas Corridor — a 3,500-kilometer pipeline network that ships gas from the Caspian Sea to Europe. The European Investment Bank — which loaned hundreds of millions of euros to building the pipeline — told POLITICO it would not consider financing its expansion.
Gas politics
Azerbaijan is regarded as one of the world’s most autocratic states, and Aliyev’s regime ensures “the state’s oil and gas revenues” benefit “privileged elites rather than the general population,” according to a recent report from Freedom House.
The country has also fought several military conflicts with neighboring Armenia in recent years, including a recent offensive to reconquer the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh. Following the attack, the European Parliament approved targeted sanctions against Aliyev and other top officials and called for “the EU to reduce its dependency on Azeri gas imports.”
However, those demands have not been implemented. Instead, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has championed closer energy ties with Azerbaijan, flying to Baku in July 2022 to sign a deal to boost gas imports. Hailing the country as a “crucial energy partner” for the EU in its efforts to end reliance on Russian fossil fuels, von der Leyen said the agreement would see Azerbaijani gas exports to the bloc hit 20 billion cubic meters in the coming years.
Aliyev has set out plans to become a major supplier of green energy to the Continent, as well, with strategic sectors like offshore wind power and hydrogen drawing investment from global energy firms.
Hosting the conference, Aliyev said, was “a sign of respect of international community to Azerbaijan, to what we’re doing, including in the area of green energy.”
