US New Vehicle Sales Forecast to Fall 8.8 Percent Sequentially in 1st Quarter

Edmunds, a Santa Monica, California-based online car shopping guide, is forecasting a significant drop in new vehicle sales by the end of the first quarter. Its March 26 report predicts sales of 3,693,599 new cars and trucks nationally by the end of the month, marking a 6.3 percent decline from the first quarter of 2025 and an 8.8 percent decline from the fourth quarter.
“Q1 marked a bumpy start for new-car sales in 2026,” Jessica Caldwell, Edmunds’ head of insights, said in the report.
“Between severe weather, geopolitical uncertainty, rising gas prices and ongoing affordability challenges, it’s no surprise sales are down year-over-year.”
But despite the drop, Caldwell said “sales are far from falling off a cliff.”…