Commentary
War often tempts analysts to focus on political headlines, and events at sea or in the air. That is a mistake in the Iran conflict. The decisive terrain in the current confrontation with Iran is economic, systemic, and ultimately political. What we are witnessing is not simply a naval contest in the Persian Gulf. It is a test of whether a regime built on circumvention can survive when that option is removed.
For decades, Tehran’s strategy was coherent. It offset American financial pressure by exporting oil to China through opaque channels, while deterring direct confrontation through asymmetric tactics. Harassment in the Strait of Hormuz, deniable attacks on shipping, and a dispersed network of proxies allowed Iran to raise the cost of Western pressure without exposing itself to decisive retaliation. It was a strategy of disruption, not control, but for years it proved sufficient….